Thursday, October 13, 2011

If the result is better than the target, then your hypothesis was wrong

One way to see "targets" is as a goal to beat.  If you fall below the target, this is bad.  If you match the target, this is good.  If you exceed the target, this is even better.

Think of it like filling a container with something we want.  The more the better.


This mindset tends to lead to an organisational culture that produces low reliability products and services because it leads to not questioning lucky coincidences.

Another way to see "targets" is as a prediction based on our current understanding of reality.  If you match the target, this means your model of reality is good.  If you fall below or exceed the target, this means your model of reality is wrong.

Think of it like shooting at a bullseye target.  We value closeness to the target, not how high up the arrow is.


This mindset tends to lead to an organisation culture that produces high reliability products and services because it leads to improving our understanding of reality.

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